Illicit Small Arms and Pre-/Post-Election Security in Kenya

Security concerns towards the upcoming election are now growing in Kenya, which lost more than 1,000 lives after the previous 2007-2008 election crisis.  The unsettled boundaries for electoral areas can cause the pre-election calamity in places where resource and tribal distribution may change depending on how the line were to be drawn.  Terrorist attacks have been aggravating the situation.  In the past three weeks, three terrorist attacks hit Kenya.  On June 24^th, a bar in Mombasa was attacked by grenades, killing three and sending more than thirty people to the hospital.  Seventeen were killed and nearly 70 were injured in the attacks last Sunday at two churches in Garissa, a small town close to the border with Somalia. 

According to the 2011 survey, election is the time when people feel most unsafe.  In fact, the 2007-2008 post-election mayhem killed 1,133 people (according to the report of the Commission of Inquiry into Post-Election Violence) and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.  Supporters of the current Prime Minister Odinga claimed manipulation, and they crashed against the current president Kibaki’s supporters.  The controversy developed into a tribal conflict, turning the Kenyan soil into a bloody battlefield. 

Such concerns have been feeding a steady demand for small arms.  According to the Kenya National Focal Point on Small Arms and Light Weapons (KNFP), the most conservative estimate of households with illicit arms is around 170,000-210,000, while it says that the number can increase up to 530,000-680,000.  As some households own more than two, the total number of illicit arms in Kenya is likely to be much higher.  These illicit arms are smuggled from neighboring countries both from the sea and the land.  Although the border control is high on Kenya’s agenda, the government may need to address not only the supply side but also the demand side because arms trafficking will continue as long as there is a demand.  Some reports show a decrease in people’s safety perception scores after disarmament, which reflects people’s reluctance to give up small arms as means of self-protection.  Ironically, possessing arms from security concerns often becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. 

Although no one can guarantee that the tragedy of the previous election will not be repeated, there is a ground of optimism.  The Kenyan government together with international partners has been trying to prepare against the worst-case scenario.  For example, police trainings, public awareness-raising campaigns, and arms registration have been taking place across the country.  If the Kenyan government can show that it can protect its citizens, the demand for small arms, which are encouraging arms trafficking, may decrease eventually.  The Kenyan government and its international partners need to keep a close eye on developments and to prepare themselves against any possible pre- and post- election security deterioration.